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Near the beginning of A Scandal in Bohemia, Watson asks Sherlock Holmes to explain his solution of their current case. Sir Arthur Conan Doyle puts the following words into the mouth of Sherlock Holmes: ‘I have no data yet. It is a capital mistake to theorise before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.”

These words, or similar, are spoken by Holmes in several other Sherlock Holmes stories. They seem to me to be an important truism useful in all walks of life, not just fictional crime detection.

We all, all day every day, make decisions based on insufficient data. Indeed, this is the human condition, it being impossible to know everything. If both sides in an argument had access to the same set of data, they probably wouldn’t be arguing, as most of us can tell the difference between right and wrong.

The most important thing is to recognise that none of us know everything, even within our specialist subjects. The willingness to learn, even for the eldest amongst us, is one of the most useful attributes one can have. Recognise the unknown, and watch out for the unknown unknowns.